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The Middle East has entered a phase of "difficult days" in recent hours. An American official who spoke to "Al Arabiya" and "Al Hadath" stated that the "phase of leniency has ended," indicating that anything could happen now.
Iran Reviews Its Options
In detail, Americans monitor what the parties, especially Iran, do after every major event in the Middle East. Americans have learned that whenever Iran receives a blow, it goes through days of internal discussion. During this period, the various branches of the Iranian state, including the Revolutionary Guards and the Supreme Leader, review the available and possible options.
American intelligence considers this period as the "phase of leniency," where the Iranian response is delayed, and they literally call it the "sweet phase." However, American intelligence also knows that during these days, Iranians work on plans to respond to the blow. Now, Americans believe that this phase of leniency has ended, and the "difficult days" phase has begun. Iran might respond to the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran, and Hezbollah might be prepared to coordinate a potential attack with Tehran in retaliation for the killing of Fouad Shukr, one of the top leaders of the Iran-affiliated organization.
American Messages
The Americans took advantage of this phase of leniency to send messages to Tehran and its affiliated parties. All American statements agree that Washington does not want escalation. The United States used all available diplomatic channels to convey this message to Tehran.
Many American officials confirm that Washington used established diplomatic channels, such as the Swiss embassy in Tehran, to deliver this message. Additionally, it relied on allies like the British Prime Minister, the French President, and the German Chancellor to communicate with the new Iranian president and inform him that the United States and other parties do not want escalation.
Concern for Americans
Americans are worried that Tehran may have used the "phase of leniency" to coordinate a larger and worse attack than the one on April 13. Americans now estimate that Iran has many options, especially launching a direct attack from Iranian territory in cooperation with its militias in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen.
Several American officials who spoke to "Al Arabiya" and "Al Hadath" expressed particular concern about Iran or its affiliated militias launching attacks on American soldiers deployed in Iraq and Syria. One spokesperson said that these soldiers are at risk, and they do not want them to be harmed.
It is clear that Americans want to emphasize that a coordinated Iranian attack with militias not only affects Israeli security but also poses a threat to Americans. This causes significant tension for the U.S. President and his administration, especially the Department of Defense, which is directly responsible for its troops in the Middle East.
U.S. Offensive Readiness
The risk of these "difficult days" is heightened by Iran’s apparent lack of intention to respond to European efforts or American messages. No statements have been made by Iranian leaders indicating that Tehran is actually ready to back down from its threats.
Americans believe that the response to the escalating Iranian threats lies in mobilizing more forces in the Middle East and shifting from a defensive to an offensive posture.
Since the beginning of the tension, Washington has deployed additional naval forces in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Red Sea, and the Arabian Gulf, as well as missile defense batteries in the region. It is clear from the deployment map that these forces are well-positioned to counter any major attack from Iran and its militias and to thwart such an attack.
However, the past two days have seen a noticeable shift in American capabilities. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced that he had requested the aircraft carrier Lincoln to move more swiftly to the Middle East and had directed a U.S. submarine equipped with Tomahawk missiles to enter the Central Command’s operational area.
Preparing for Escalation
A senior military official who spoke to "Al Arabiya" and "Al Hadath" confirmed that the U.S. had substantial capabilities in the Middle East at the beginning of the phase, but "the aircraft carrier and submarine are offensive forces."